Summer is just around the corner! Here's our forecast for 2018 to help you plan
We're days away from Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of summer. At the end of April, our First Alert Weather team gave you some insight into what our summer might be. As we cruise into the holiday weekend and the end of the school year, we wanted to give you another look at our summer forecast.
Unlike this past winter and current spring, it does not look like the upcoming summer will feature multiple broken records.
It was quite the incredible past few months as we made our way through winter and into spring. In fact, this winter will go down in the record books as the tenth snowiest on record with 93.1” of snow accumulation officially in South Bend. It was an incredible lake effect snow season as well, with LaPorte picking up more than 135” of snow! That is not the only stat that is impressive. Our coldest temperature this winter was -15°, and that was one of 12 days with subzero temperatures. That is nearly twice the normal days at or below zero! Overall temperatures December through February ended up 1.1° below average. It was also the third wettest winter on record thanks to the heavy, flooding rains we saw in late February in addition to above-average snowfall.
The weak La Nina pattern will give way to a weak El Nino pattern by this fall, meaning most of the summer will be neutral. This indicates no major trend in the overall pattern. Because of this, we focused heavily on analog forecasting, which is when we find years similar to the past winter and spring season and see how those summers fared. There were multiple years that had cold, snowy seasons, but a few of special note can be found on the graphics shown in our forecast video (which can be found in the player above).
Within these analog years, almost all of the cold, snowy winters and springs featured a warmer than average summer. What is even more impressive is that much of the summer’s heat was found in the first half of the season. Because of the consensus of the analogs, it is a safe bet to assume this upcoming summer will be warmer than average.
Normally we see around ten days at or above 90°. We are forecasting at least 15 days, with many of them occurring in June and July. While August will no doubt be warm, the heat should not be as intense as the first two months of the season. Average precipitation is expected with around 10” of rainfall during the summer months.